Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation
Japanese pension funds, the world’s second-largest pool of retirement
assets after the U.S., will more than double their gold holdings in the
next two years as the new government pushes for a higher inflation
target, according to an adviser to the funds.
Assets held by
Japanese pension funds in gold-backed exchange-traded products may
expand to 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) by 2015 from less than 45
billion yen at present, said Itsuo Toshima, who represented the
Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011.
Gold bars are displayed for a
photograph at Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry K. K.'s store in Tokyo, Japan.
Photographer: Junko Kimura/Bloomberg
New Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe’s pledge to spur inflation to 2 percent and end the yen’s
appreciation means Japanese pension funds now have to hedge against
rising prices and a currency decline after two decades of stagnation.
They’re set to jump into gold after 12 straight years of gains with the
precious metal now 14 percent below its all-time high reached 2011. Gold
priced in yen reached a record a week ago.
“Bullion’s role as an
inflation hedge, long ignored by Japanese fund operators, has come
under the spotlight thanks to Abe’s economic policy,” Toshima, who now
works as an adviser to pension-fund operators, said in an interview
today in Tokyo. “Gold may be a standard asset-class in the portfolio of
Japanese pension funds as Abe’s target is realized.”
Pension Funds
Japanese
pensions oversee $3.36 trillion, according to human-resource and
consulting services company Towers Watson & Co. Corporate pension
funds in
Japan will diversify 72 trillion yen in assets after domestic stocks produced little return in the past two decades, according to Daiwa Institute of Research.
Japan’s
Nikkei-225 (NKY) Stock Average lost 73 percent at the end of 2012 from a record high reached in December 1989, compared with the
MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD), which more than doubled.
The
nation’s economy has been mired in deflation, with consumer prices kept
below 3 percent since 1991, as the bursting of an asset bubble in the
late 1980s led to stagnant economic growth as land values dropped to
about
half of what they were. Abe wants the Bank of Japan to raise its inflation target of 1 percent.
Bullion
posted its longest run of annual gains in at least nine decades last
year. Credit Suisse Group AG said Jan. 3 gold will average the most ever
this year and joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in predicting the 12-year
bull market will probably peak in 2013.
Gold in Yen
Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp.,
which introduced Japan’s first gold ETF in 2010, expects assets held in
the product to double over the next several years from 26.2 billion yen
as of Nov. 30. Global investors are holding a near-record amount in
gold-backed ETPs that are valued at $139.6 billion, data compiled by
Bloomberg show.
Local pension funds last year for the first time
allocated 2.1 billion yen, or 2 to 3 percent of their assets, in the
gold- backed ETF of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust, a member of
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306),
Japan’s largest lender, according to general manager Osamu Hoshi. The
bank is in talks with several pension funds on gold, he said Dec. 20.
Gold
rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds
of monetary easing from December 2008 through June 2011. The European
Central Bank, Bank of Japan and
China have all pledged to do more to bolster their economies.
Gold
in Japan’s currency reached a record 147,780 yen an ounce on Jan. 2,
after climbing 21 percent last year. Gold in dollars reached a record
$1,921.15 an ounce on Sept. 6, 2011 and gained 7 percent in 2012.
Federal Reserve
The
metal fell last week for a sixth week, the worst run since May 2004,
after U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers said they’ll probably end their
$85 billion of monthly bond purchases this year, according to the
record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 11-12 gathering.
Bullion traded at $1,651.05 at 5:56 p.m. in Tokyo.
Turnover at
Mitsubishi UFJ Trust’s gold ETF on the Tokyo Stock Exchange amounted to
8.67 billion yen in November, exceeding turnover in the SPDR, the
biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, and becoming the ninth
most-traded fund out of the 140 products listed on the Japanese
securities exchanges, data compiled by the bank show.
Mitsubishi
UFJ’s ETF is linked to yen-based gold prices on the Tokyo Commodity
Exchange, Japan’s largest raw-material bourse. Gold futures on the
exchange known as Tocom rallied 19 percent last year, outperforming the
7.1 percent increase in the spot market in
London, as the yen declined 13 percent against the dollar.
Assets
held by corporate pension funds in Japan amounted to 72.24 trillion yen
as of March 2012, declining 0.9 percent from a year earlier, according
to Yasuo Sugeno, director at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. Of
the total, about 72 billion yen were allocated to commodities including
gold through hedge funds, he said Dec. 10.
Government Pension
Investment Fund of Japan, the operator of the world’s largest pension
fund with 113.6 trillion yen, stays away from commodity investment as 67
percent of their assets were allocated to Japanese bonds, Sugeno said.
“Pension
money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima said.
“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold market
would explode.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/gold-lures-japan-s-pension-funds-as-government-pledges-inflation.html