Jim Sinclair interviewed by James Turk

James Turk, Director of The GoldMoney Foundation, talks to Jim Sinclair, about his successful gold price predictions, US debt problems, how to ride the trend and the second phase of the gold bull. It's a gear change from arithmetic to exponential growth as public perceptions about the safety of the US dollar changes. The debt ceiling debate is a wake up call for people all over the world. The video was recorded on August 5 2011 at the GATA conference in London.

Top Gold Seers Forecast Record High in March

The most accurate forecasters say gold will rebound from its biggest monthly plunge since 2008 and reach a record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe’s debt crisis is unresolved.

Futures traded in New York may rise 13 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The predictions are from eight of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. Two declined to give forecasts.
Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion rose the most in three months in October, and the most-widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $2,000 by Nov. 22.

Demand for the metal accelerated since May as slowing growth and mounting concern that European leaders will fail to contain the region’s debt crisis caused $7.5 trillion to be erased from the value of global equities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/top-gold-forecasters-see-bullion-rallying-to-record-by-march-commodities.html

GOLD BULLION SUPERHIGHWAY ROAD MAP CHART

GOLD BULLION SUPERHIGHWAY ROAD MAP CHART

China punters sway gold market

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Mainland punters have emerged as a formidable force in the international gold market and are one of the main reasons for the ongoing volatility in gold prices, say Hong Kong industry sources.The spot price of gold has lurched between US$1,640 per ounce and US$1,900 in the past month.
From 7.30pm Hong Kong time yesterday the price went from US$1,785 to US$1,840 in a matter of hours in New York trade.
A source in the market saw 7,000 contracts being placed via electronic trading at the start of this period. Heavy volume of bullish bets placed on the gold price by mainland punters also pushed it higher, the source said.
Emperor Financial Services assistant vice president Sam Lee Chun-wai estimates the global trading volume of gold amounts to US$1 billion daily.
Mainland punters by themselves cannot move the market, he said. But Lee noted that an appreciation of the yuan amid continued economic boom in China has boosted the firepower of mainland players.
"Buying commodities with US dollars has proved to be an attractive investment for many mainlanders in the last few years," he said.
According to a report in Yangcheng Evening News last Wednesday, just one city in Guangdong province - Guangzhou - has 2,000 underground investment companies dealing in gold and foreign currencies.
Investors can leverage up to 100 times their principal with such black- market brokers, the daily said. The black market for gold in China sees up to 100 billion yuan (HK$122 billion) worth of trade every year, the report said.
Legal exchanges around the world have acted swiftly to curb volatility in the price of the precious metal.
The US-based CME Group raised trading margins of gold by the most in more than two and a half years last week, leading to a 4 percent drop in the spot price.
CME increased margin requirements on its gold futures contract by 27 percent, the second hike in a month, following similar moves by the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange earlier this month.
Mainland punters are taking advantage of the situation, sources say, by going both short and long on the metal.
End-of-month settlement for futures contract has also helped raise volatility, said traders, who also noted that the US$1 billion daily trading volume of the gold market is relatively thin compared with the oil market, which sees a much higher volume.
"Contrary to what many people think, it is not unthinkable that on certain days, mainland punters may emerge as a dominant factor on the international gold market," a source said.
Mainlanders have certainly emerged as the largest players in the Hong Kong gold market in recent years, traders confirm.
Local analysts estimate they now account for up to 70 percent of the daily trading volume on the Hong Kong open market.
The SAR also allows out-of-market gold trading and this is very attractive to mainlanders, traders said. Last night, spot gold was up 2 percent, reaching as high as US$1,822.50 an ounce in New York afternoon trade. 


http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=114736&sid=33564191&con_type=1

A New (G)old Standard? It's...Academic

Gold prices fell by the most in a year-and-a-half on Tuesday as the quest for safe-haven turned into a quest for securing profits and being the first one out from an apparently extremely overbought market. RSI metrics had been above the 70-mark for more than two weeks while gold vaulted 14% during the very month that is normally price-unfriendly. However, yesterday, the yellow metal at one point came within just $5 of recording a full $100 drop from the most recent high water mark it achieved just hours prior to yesterday’s rout (1,917 versus 1,822).
This morning’s market action showed that some initial attempts were in progress to stabilize the situation somewhat. Spot gold dealings opened with a gain of 1.04% in New York and the yellow metal was quoted at $1,848 per ounce on the bid-side. Overnight, the Shanghai Gold Exchange raised its own gold trading margin requirements for the second time this year, in the wake of recent wild and woolly price action in the metal. The CME already enacted a similar hike just recently.
Silver, on the other hand largely refused to rise with the Wednesday tide in gold, adding only 16 cents at the open and hovering right around the $42 pivot point. A very large unwind battered the white metal on Tuesday, also just hours after panic gripped retail buyers and they piled into $44+ silver. Today, the poor man’s gold threatens to head towards $40…In the background, the US dollar continued flat at just under the 74.00 mark on the trade-weighted index. Jackson Hole “momentary paralysis” is alive and well.
This morning’s feeble gains did not show much longevity however; silver headed into the red (by almost 85 cents) shortly after the market’s opening bell and led the apparently re-emerging selling patterns in the complex. Gold fell to fresh lows at under the $1,805.00 area, bringing the holding of the psychological support thought to reside at the $1,800.00 mark onto trading radars. Futures prices actually did dip beneath that figure at last check. News on the US economic front showed a surprise 4% jump in July durable goods orders and an also surprising gain of 0.9% in housing values. The Dow reacted with…a non-reaction of a 38-point climb. Jackson Hole…etc.
Platinum and palladium showed a similarly more muted recovery in values as the midweek session got underway; their gains were ranging from $2 in palladium (to $760.00 the ounce) up to $5 in platinum (to the $1,868.00 level). Rhodium remained unchanged at the offered quote of $1,975.00 per ounce. Carmaker Toyota is rebounding from the devastating Sendai quake in March with a virtual blitz of new models aimed at the US market. The redesigned Camry (on and off, the best-selling car in the USA) is slated to kick the automakers revitalized assault on the American car shopper’s list of priorities.
Some of the current questions being posed among bullion traders center not on whether gold will find some more solid floor of support, but at what value marker down the road they might do so. Estimates range from yesterday’s lows near $1,825, to $1,725 and down to $1,680.00 an ounce. Expectations of an average quarterly price of $1,600 as at the end of this year were made public by National Australia Bank yesterday. The institution noted that “recent economic events should help to maintain the price of gold at an elevated level until uncertainty begins to dissipate and investor demand for gold unwinds." Looking further down the road, Citi analysts envision gold prices averaging $1,650 next year and $1,500 the year after that.
None of these other projections stopped Darrell Cronk, SVP at Wells Fargo from restating the investment bank’s position whereby it can “confidently state that interest in gold investing has reached the level of a speculative bubble.” To wit, the level of demand that investment has come to account for in the gold market has recently risen to 39% from the mere 4% it amounted to, in the year 2000, according to Citigroup-sourced statistics.
The bank’s analysts recently noted that “this very aspect that provided support for gold over this time [period] may result in its downfall going forward. Even a slowdown-let alone a decline- in net investment can have a materially negative impact on the gold price from current levels.” We have repeatedly noted here that the market has become a complete addict to but one category of offtake; that of investment.
Just a couple of days ago, the SPDR Gold Trust’s (GLD) asset values overtook those of the S&P 500 SPDR –a development characterized as “senseless” and one that can happen only after “periods of euphoric rises” by economist Dennis Gartman. WFC’s Mr. Cronk also observes (with growing) wariness that some investors are over-allocating assets to gold at rates some 2 to 4 times higher than the conventionally advisable 10 percent.
Meanwhile, the traditional pillar of gold’s demand –that which comes from jewellery fabrication- is still relatively flat on its back after having scraped along at 23+ year lows for some time now. Without once again delving into the foggy statistics related to actual tonnage demand that we brought you in recent days on the subject of India, it is worth noting that Reuters has found some fresh news on this front.
Reporters who polled the head of that country’s leading gold trade body (the BBA) envisages dampened festival-related gold demand in 2011 (just weeks ahead, literally) if prices remain at or near present levels, but still expects imports to surpass the 1K tonne level. A separate Reuters poll on the estimates for 2011 imports conducted with the largest firms in the business of gold in India yielded to following results:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/aug242011.html

Robin Griffiths - Important Price Targets to Look For in Gold

With the gold market experiencing profit taking, today King World News interviewed one of the top strategists in the world, 40 year veteran Robin Griffiths of Cazenove.  Cazenove is one of the oldest financial firms on the planet and is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen.  When asked about the action in gold Griffiths replied, “The prime trend is obviously incredibly strongly upwards and that’s going to persist for a very long time to come, however in the very short run it’s overbought.  It’s deviated quite a long way above its rising trend line and also in the short run people are not usually good at sitting on big profits.  So you’re bound to see at some stage some profit-taking.”

“I think what might trigger it (profit taking) is I’m expecting equity markets generally in the West to fall some more between now and late October.  In that period people do the wrong thing, instead of cutting a loss on the equity market, the bear market, they tend to take a profit on the only thing they’ve got a profit on.  So in the shakeout in equity markets still to come you might well see some profit-taking on gold.

It could bring the bullion price back to about $1,700.  If it does that, buy that dip because the final highs are going to be hundreds of percent higher than we are currently trading.  I’m in the camp thinking it (gold) will go to somewhere between $5,000 and $10,000 an ounce at a minimum.  There are scenarios that take it higher than that, but it’s got many times up from here.” 

When asked about the US dollar Griffiths responded, “The dollar is trying to make a base and if world markets enter a panic phase, which is entirely likely in October of this year, you would expect a dollar rally.  However, in the meantime if Mr. Bernanke comes up with QE3, QE4 and QE5 or even thinks about them (publicly), the dollar will continue to be weaker. 

In that scenario, the euro with all of its problems stays slightly stronger than the dollar.  But in practice, in the global context, both of these currencies are suspect and really one needs to protect against their downside risks.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/23_Robin_Griffiths_-_Important_Price_Targets_to_Look_For_in_Gold.html

Precious Metal Margin Warfare Jumps The Pacific, As Shanghai Hikes Gold Margins For Second Time In A Month, Prepares To Crush Silver

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/precious-metal-margin-warfare-jumps-pacific-shanghai-hikes-gold-margins-second-time-month-prepa

Wondering why gold dropped by almost $100 today? Wonder no more: today the Shanghai Gold Exchange lifted gold margins for forward contracts the second time this month to 12% beginning on Friday, in a move that is starting to resemble the CME's vendetta with silver back from May. Should we expect 3 more SGE margin hikes in the next 2 weeks? Or will the CME rightfully accept the baton and do everything in its power to dent the parabolic rise in the alternative reserve currency? We are cautiously looking at what the CME will do today and will advise readers. In the meantime, here is what else happened in Shanghai: "China’s main precious metals exchange will also widen daily trading limits for those gold contracts to 9 percent, up from 7 percent, the SGE said on its website on Tuesday. The contracts to be affected include Au(T+D), Au(T+N1) and Au(T+N2). This is the second time the exchange has raised collateral requirements on gold forward contracts this year — both times in August — as international gold prices hit a series of record highs over the past few weeks, boosted by a flight to safety on worries over a stalling U.S. recovery and crippling sovereign debt in the euro zone. Shanghai Gold T+D contract lost half a percent to 387.8 yuan per gram, or $1,884.47 an ounce, down from an intraday high of 391.9 yuan when the market opened."

More from Reuters:

“Gold prices on the global market have been rallying strongly and at an increasingly faster pace. The margin hike is a pre-emptive move in case prices crashed and caused great volatility in the market,” said Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFCO Futures.

At a time of market turmoil, exchanges routinely increase the margin requirements to cover the risk of a default.

With the SGE’s margin requirement exceeding its daily trade limit, the hike seems aimed at squeezing some speculative froth out from the market, some traders said.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange could raise margins on its gold futures contract soon too, said Li.

The new margin would require an additional 490.4 million yuan ($76.6 million) to be posted to the exchange.

Trading volume on the most popular gold forward contract hit a three-month high of 26,032 grams on Aug. 11, and eased to just shy of 20,000 grams on Tuesday as the exchange finished the afternoon session. The average volume so far this month stood at 14,999 grams, compared to a daily average of 9,138 grams in 2010.

The exchange also said it was closely eyeing silver contract price movements and would consider raising trading margins, transaction fees or costs of rolling over forward contracts should volatility persist.